Hurricane center says Caribbean-bound system could become tropical depression today

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Oct 7, 2025

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ORLANDO, Fla. – The National Hurricane Center on Tuesday said the season’s next tropical cyclone could form in the Atlantic and could grow into Tropical Storm Jerry headed for the Caribbean.

As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook, the broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave dubbed Invest 95L had shown continued organization of its showers and thunderstorms overnight located about 1,000 miles east of the Windward Islands.

“Environmental conditions appear favorable for continued development of this system, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form in the next day or so while it moves quickly west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic,” forecasters said.

Advisories are likely later today, the NHC stated. Already a gale warning had been issued and it was forecast to be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday.

The NHC gave it a 90% chance to develop in the next two days.

It would become the 10th tropical cyclone of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, and if powerful enough would become Tropical Storm Jerry.

The forecast bubble for just where it could form includes parts of the Caribbean. Most models have the system moving out into the open Atlantic and not becoming a threat to Florida or the U.S. coast.

The NHC also continued to track a trough of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula with a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. It is is expected to emerge into the Bay of Campeche later Tuesday.

“Some slow development is possible before it moves inland over southern Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday.” forecasters said. “Regardless of development, areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and southern Mexico during the next couple of days.”

The NHC gave it a 10% chance to develop in the next two to seven days.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

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