Tropical Storm Melissa forms in the Caribbean. Haiti, Jamaica on alert

Alex Harris, Miami Herald on Oct 21, 2025

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Tropical Storm Melissa has officially formed, and the first forecast track suggests it could threaten Haiti as a hurricane over the weekend.

As of 11 a.m. Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center issued its first forecast track and cone for Melissa, which is expected to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane as soon as Saturday as it approaches Haiti and Jamaica.

Haiti is under a hurricane watch, and Jamaica is under a tropical storm watch. A watch means those conditions are possible in the next 48 hours.

Haiti and the Dominican Republic could see 5 to 10 inches of rain through Friday, enough to cause dangerous mudslides and flooding in the mountainous island. Jamaica and Puerto Rico could see 1 to 3 inches of rain through Friday, enough to cause flash flooding in Puerto Rico, the hurricane center said.

Melissa had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph as of 11 a.m. Tuesday, and it was expected to continue to strengthen over the next few days and it slowly moves north.

Overnight, Melissa slowed down a bit and it’s expected to hit the brakes even harder for the next few days as it creeps north toward Haiti and Jamaica. The first forecast track from the NHC only stretches to Saturday, where it has Melissa as a Category 1 hurricane between Haiti and Jamaica.

“After that time, the guidance diverges significantly,” forecasters wrote in the 11 a.m. update.

The hurricane center noted that there’s “significant uncertainty” about the path of Melissa, partially because long-range storm models are still spitting out a wide array of possible tracks. Some take the system over Haiti, others take it over Cuba.

Over the next week, Melissa is passing over some warmer than usual waters in the Caribbean, which has not seen a tropical storm or hurricane yet this season. And while hot water does typically fuel storms, meteorologists also pointed out there’s a good deal of wind shear near Melissa, which could destabilize it and prevent it from getting super strong, super fast.

“Based on these mixed signals, the strengthening trend is expected to be slow and steady, not rapid. However, the future intensity of Melissa is linked to the track and since that is quite uncertain beyond a couple of days, the strength of the storm is also quite uncertain,” they wrote.

The Hurricane Hunters are also scheduled to observe the system later Tuesday, which will bring extra information that helps determine where the storm is and where it might go.