As Donald Trump steps up his targeting of Venezuela, the region’s fragmented governments are failing to agree on any joint response to rein him in.

Not only have President Nicolás Maduro’s calls for Latin American solidarity largely fallen on deaf ears, but a new poll shows a significant number of people in the region even see U.S. military intervention as the best shot at restoring Venezuelan democracy.

That contrasts with the response in 2018 when the Venezuelan refugee crisis was near its peak, and governments from across Latin America and the Caribbean put aside ideological differences to meet and coordinate a response.

Brazil and Colombia, two key players which last year teamed up to mediate with Maduro, now take very different approaches as the U.S. sends ships and planes to the southern Caribbean in what it says are efforts to fight drug trafficking. While Colombian leader Gustavo Petro’s criticisms have heightened tensions between Washington and Bogotá, Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has adopted a more diplomatic tone as he seeks to convince Trump to lower the 50% tariffs imposed on many of his country’s goods.

Lula distanced himself from Maduro after last year’s election in Venezuela, and never recognized his victory in a vote which was widely considered to be fraudulent. He warned Trump that conflict with Venezuela would be devastating for the region, and offered to mediate, but emphasized that he hasn’t spoken to Maduro since last year.

Colombia’s leader has refused to condemn Maduro and has continued to engage with Caracas on issues including trade, security and energy. He has also been more strident in his criticism of Trump’s actions, and his combative tone made him the target of U.S. sanctions.

“Latin American fragmentation is central to Trump’s strategy,” said Carlos Gustavo Poggio, a political scientist who focuses on U.S.-Latin America relations. “We’re all on our own, and his strategy is to divide and conquer.”

It doesn’t help for regional leaders that a significant number of their voters have a positive view of Trump’s Venezuela policy. A survey conducted by AtlasIntel for Bloomberg News found that 39% of people believe the U.S. president is “very committed” to bringing freedom to Venezuela, compared to 17% for Lula and 16% for Petro. What’s more, those polled see a U.S. intervention as offering a greater chance of success in restoring democracy to Venezuela than diplomatic negotiations or social protests.

The poll of 6,757 people was conducted between Oct. 22 and Oct. 28 and has a margin of error of 1 percentage point. The survey was carried out across the region, as well as among Latin Americans in the U.S. and Canada.

US relations

Lula is trying to avoid a spat with either Venezuela or the US before any full-blown conflict, according to Brazilian diplomats who asked not to be identified discussing the issue.

A war in Venezuela would be much more devastating for Colombia, which is home to millions of Venezuelans and has a more integrated border with its neighbor. This might explain Petro’s more vocal stance, one of them said.

Other leftist leaders in the region, including Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum and Chile’s Gabriel Boric, have made clear their opposition to a U.S. invasion of Venezuela but, like Lula, have avoided statements that might jeopardize their relationship with Washington. With leaders including Sheinbaum and Lula focused on trade talks with the U.S., with Argentina grappling with an economic crisis and with Boric focusing on an election at home, Trump is benefiting from their fragmented attention.

“Latin American leaders may decry U.S. meddling in the region, but few might be inclined to join forces in support of what after all is an infamous dictatorship,” said Jimena Zuniga, a Latin America geoeconomics analyst at Bloomberg Economics. “It doesn’t help most of them have their own negotiations open with Trump and a few, like Argentina and Mexico, have excellent relationships with Trump they probably don’t want to compromise.”

The Maduro government had hoped the latest U.S. attacks would raise regional sympathy for the country, and perhaps bring Lula and Petro closer together on the issue, a person close to the government who asked not be identified discussing sensitive matters said.

Petro, who’s set to host a summit of Community of Latin American and Caribbean States and their European Union counterparts this month, could still try and bring the Venezuelan crisis to the table when they meet in Santa Marta on Colombia’s Caribbean coast. Whether he can get participants to agree on a joint statement or other measures is another thing. In 2023, the two groups clashed over a statement on the war in Ukraine.

With countries focused on solving crises like the one in Venezuela, but also Ukraine and Gaza, that keeps them from cooperating on other topics, including development, finance and the environment, said Celso Amorim, Lula’s chief foreign policy adviser.

“All this takes away our energy, our capacity to think new things,” Amorim said this week at the Paris Peace Forum.

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(With assistance from Andreina Itriago and Oscar Munoz Gonzalez.)

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