Greg Cote's Week 11 NFL picks

The good news first? Our solid 10-4 straight-up included nailing our Upset of the Week picks (Jets over Browns; “Aawwk!”) and a second upset with Texans over Jaguars. That makes us 4 for 4 on outright upsets the past two weeks. Also had another pair of ‘dogs-with-points last week on covers by the Dolphins vs. Buffalo and Raiders at Denver. And yet still we managed to roll only a 6-8 vs. the spread. How? The wrong side of luck, if I’m being frank. Consider: There were four results that swung on a half-point (based on the line when I played ‘em), and I was 0 for 4 on those. Maddening! But it’s OK. Our overall number is creeping up, and we’re a couple of strong weeks from flipping the script ATS. As the kids say, “LFG!” [Note: Our Thursday night pick was Patriots (8-2, -12 1/2) over Jets (2-7), 27-13.]

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— Week 10: 10-4, .714 overall; 6-8, .429 against the spread.

— Season: 94-54, .635 overall; 71-77, .480 against the spread.

— Final 2024: 186-86, .684 overall; 139-128-5, .521 against the spread.

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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 11 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK

SEAHAWKS (7-2) at RAMS (7-2)

Line: LAR by 3.

Cote’s pick: LAR 28-24.

TV: 4:05 p.m., Fox.

Two teams tied atop the NFC West in a battle for the division lead and conference’s No. 1 seed. And both of them riding in on four-game win streaks. Lots of GOTW contenders this week but tough to beat that. And for window dressing: Rams’ Matthew Stafford has 20 TD throws and zero picks in past six games, the best such streak in NFL history and one that has him now leading league MVP betting odds. And Seattle brings a rather extraordinary 10-game win streak on the road, while Rams surf a 12-4 run against the spread in division games. Also like the stylistic contrast, with Seahawks leaning physicality to Rams’ finesse. Both teams are legit and earn the love, and I’d make an easy, convincing case for either. So the tiebreaker here: Stafford at home and playing on a planet all his own.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

LIONS (6-3) at EAGLES (7-2)

Line: PHI by 2 1/2.

Cote’s pick: DET 27-23.

TV: 8:20 p.m., NBC/Peacock.

“AAAWWWK!” warbles the Upset Bird. “Jared Goff on Sunday night! Jared Gaawwk on Sunday naawwk!” Our Game of the Week-first alternate is our Upset of the Week because Detroit’s advantage offensively over Philly is far greater than its deficit on defense in this matchup. Also think Dan Campbell getting more hands-on in play-calling has been a boon to Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown, et al. No doubt it’s an NFC heavyweight bout, with Motown on an 11-2 run on the road and Birds on a 14-1 heater at home. Just don’t see Philly quite as strong as team that won Super Bowl, and ready for Lions to expose that a bit. “Detroit averages 7.2 more points and 69.2 more yards per game than the Tush-Pushers,” notes U-Bird. “Look at us rockin’ the stats. Rockin the staaawwwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 11:

Thursday night pick was Patriots (8-2, -12 1/2) over Jets (2-7), 27-13: Pats win and (narrowly) cover.

Dolphins (3-7, -2 1/2) over Commanders (3-7), in Madrid, Spain, 27-20: Overheard spoken in Castilian Spanish at Plaza Mayor in downtown Madrid: “Si quisiera ver dos equipos malos iría a un partido de fútbol Valencia-Oviedo.” (”If I wanted to see two bad teams I’d go to a Valencia-Oviedo football match.”) OK I made that up. But we would all agree a duel of two teams a combined 6-14 might not be the stuff of dreams for Madrilenos anticipating Spain’s first ever NFL game. Still, what will be only Miami and Washington’s 17th all-time meeting figures as a competitive game liable to swing either way. It is a Dolphins home game — a “home” game 4,400 miles from Miami — and the Fins have staged a week of fan events, pub crawls and aqua-painted buses to foster what should be a pro-Miami crowd for Sunday’s 9:30 a.m. kickoff at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium to kickoff NFL Week 11. (Fun fact: Santiago Bernabéu was a Real Madrid soccer legend who starred in the 1910s.) Miami is 1-5 all time in international games. Washington’s only prior was a 2016 tie with Cincinnati in London. Enough backstory. Commanders enter on a five-game losing streak with a backup QB (Marcus Mariota) and a discombobulated defense. Hence, Miami as a small favorite after winning two of its pas three games. Madrid weather figures in the 50s and cloudy with a chance of rain. Contrasting directions of both teams finds Miami in a good spot, with a defense playing at its best right now and De’Von Achane with the right opponent to continue his offense-carrying hot streak.

@Falcons (3-6, -3 1/2) over Panthers (5-5), 23-20: Inconsistency (read: unpredictability) of these two showed last week when Atlanta gave Indy a tough fight in Berlin and Carolina lost to lowly New Orleans. Like Falcons to end four-game skid, but Panthers on a 4-2 run in series and lean Cats on the cover.

@Bills (6-3, -5 1/2) over Buccaneers (6-3), 27-20: GOTW-quality interconference duel should see a big home bounceback by Bills after their humbling loss in Miami. Buff’s strong home-field edge (14-1 run in western New York) is magnified by windy, cloudy, 40-degree forecast. See Josh Allen as a touchdown better as Bucs and Baker Mayfield continue to really miss injured RB Bucky Irving.

Texans (4-5, -6 1/2) over @Titans (1-8), 19-16: Tennessee coming off a bye offers precious little remedy for a team on a 1-14 spiral dating to last season and a weakling offense that Houston’s D should dominate. But with Texans QB C.J. Stroud (concussion) seeming likely out again, I’ll chance home-‘dogs with big points in a division game.

@Vikings (4-5, -2 1/2) over Bears (6-3), 27-17: Probably our toughest call of the week. Minny has won three straight and eight of past nine in this division series, including 27-24 in season opener, but Chitown keeps surprising and over-performing its talent. Here, give me Vikings — home and more desperate — to ride its superior defense to the win.

Packers (5-3-1, -7) over @Giants (2-8), 24-16: Green Bay’s offense has been stuck in mud lately, but NYG’s soft defense seems a timely cure. Biggies tempt as home-‘dogs, as teams tend to enjoy a bit of a jolt/bump after a coaching change. (Farewell, Brian Daboll.) But hesitation there is QB Jaxson Dart being iffy with a concussion, and the steep drop it’d be to either the ghost of Russell Wilson or the Human Interception, Jameis Winston. With that, ride a big rebound game for Jordan Love and the Pack attack.

@Steelers (5-4, -5 1/2) over Bengals (3-6), 27-23: Joe Burrow’s practice window is open and his return from toe injury is in sight — but not Sunday. Bengals have won two straight in division rivalry including 33-31 one month ago. Don’t see a sweep, but like Bengals off a bye to stay within the bet line. Savvy Joe Flacco knows Mike Tomlin defenses, as he showed in earlier meeting.

Chargers (7-3, -3) over @Jaguars (5-4), 20-16: L.A. has won three straight to hang around top of AFC West, while Jax is coming off a collapse-loss to Houston that smelled like a choke. Makes Jags a wounded, dangerous home ‘dog. The line sticking at three points made this a trickier call, but Bolts have covered in nine of past 11 vs. J’Ville so let’s lean that way again.

49ers (6-4, -3) over @Cardinals (3-6), 23-18: The Kyler Murray trade rumors gain steam ... almost as if Jacoby Brissett was not a journeyman with a 20-37 career record. Arizona gets by (sort of) with sneaky-stout D, not with the ball. San Fran gets by with Band-Aids and bailing wire, enough to make 6-4 seem a minor miracle. Niners beat Cardbirds 16-15 in September, and ‘Zona is on a 3-14 skid in division games. Will Brock Purdy play for first time since Week 4? Does it matter?

Ravens (4-5, -7 1/2) over @Browns (2-7), 31-13: The return of Lamar Jackson has restored Baltimore off three straight wins to the no-longer-dormant power that has the rest of AFC worried. Ravens rappycacked Browns 41-17 in September and don’t see the rematch much closer. Show of hands if you see Dillon Gabriel keeping pace with L-Jack?

Chiefs (5-4, -3 1/2) over @Broncos (8-2), 24-20: Denver is on a 10-0 run at home but likely missing CB Patrick Surtain again and now maybe RB J.K. Dobbins, too. Broncos’ seven-game win streak is propped up by six losing-record opponents and five one-score results. Broncos are good, not great, carried by defense. But Chiefs defense is just as good, Patrick Mahomes is better than Bo Nix, and K.C. still trying to dig out from an 0-2 start has the urgency/need-it edge in this GOTW- candidate matchup. One more: Chiefs are coming off a bye, and Andy Reid is 22-4 after bye weeks.

Cowboys (3-5-1, -3 1/2) over @Raiders (2-7), 34-17: Network TV still loves the old-guard, big-name clubs, and so the Monday stage is given to the fumes of two once-great franchises. (Cue lots of air time for Jerry Jones up in a suite and for sad Raiders fans perpetually dressed up for Halloween.) Banged-up Vegas QB Geno Smith faces a generous pass defense in Dallas’, but it still bends credulity to the snapping point to imagine Raiders’ 31st-ranked scoring offense out-pointing Dak Prescott & Co. CeeDee Lamb is healthy again, ‘Boys’ defense is better since addition of DT Quinnen Williams, and, off a bye, Dallas will play with fire in first game since jarring suicide death of teammate Marshawn Kneeland.

Note: Betting lines courtesy DraftKings as of Thursday mid-afternoon.

OFF THIS WEEK

— Colts (8-2, next @Chiefs): Jonathan Taylor romped for 244 rush yards in Berlin yet Indy needed last-minute field goal then OT to get past Atlanta last week 31-25. No matter: Colts are tied for best record in league as intriguing trip to Arrowhead looms.

— Saints (2-8, next vs. Falcons): N’Awlins cashed a 17-7 upset at Carolina last week but still is tied for second-worst record in league as they test-drive a new QB in 26-year-old rookie Tyler Shough. Saints visit Miami after hosting Atlanta.