Sam Farmer's Week 11 NFL picks

Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups and makes his predictions for Week 11 of the NFL season.

All lines and over/under numbers are according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Last week, Farmer posted a 9-5 (.643) record. Through the first 10 weeks of the season, he is 97-52 (.651).

Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, his record against the spread in Week 10 would have been 8-6 (.571). For the season, his record against the spread is 75-74 (.503).

All times are Pacific. The Colts and Saints are off.

Jets (2-7) at Patriots (8-2)

Thursday, 5:15. p.m.

Line: Patriots by 12 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

New England's defense looks like something out of Mike Vrabel's prime years: disciplined, physical and stingy against the run. Justin Fields just beat Cleveland with 54 yards passing, and that won't happen again. With their quarterback playing at an elite level, the Patriots roll.

Pick: Patriots 31, Jets 10

Commanders (3-7) at Dolphins (3-7)

Sunday, 6:30 a.m.

Line: Dolphins by 2 1/2. TV: 47 1/2.

Miami's offense has been up and down, but Washington's defense has been worse. The Commanders haven't shown up on that side of the ball, and the Dolphins have the better quarterback (with Jayden Daniels hurt) and more playmakers. Expect a close one, but Miami finds a way.

Pick: Dolphins 27, Commanders 20

Chargers (7-3) at Jaguars (5-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Chargers by 2 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

Injuries along the offensive line have hugely hampered the Chargers' protection, but Justin Herbert keeps them competitive. The Jaguars are coming off an embarrassing loss and should respond at home. Expect Trevor Lawrence to settle in late.

Pick: Jaguars 27, Chargers 23

Panthers (5-5) at Falcons (3-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Falcons by 3 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

The Falcons can't seem to finish games, while the Panthers have been more physical up front and are running it effectively with Rico Dowdle. Michael Penix Jr. can make throws over the middle, but struggles on the perimeters. Carolina's defense limits the big plays.

Pick: Panthers 24, Falcons 21

Buccaneers (6-3) at Bills (6-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bills by 5 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

The Buccaneers have struggled against man coverage, but the Bills' secondary can't stay in that look all day. Baker Mayfield has enough weapons, with or without Bucky Irving, to keep drives alive. Buffalo's offense has been inexplicably out of sync.

Pick: Buccaneers 28, Bills 24

Texans (4-5) at Titans (1-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Texans by 7. O/U: 38 1/2.

Houston's defense has been excellent, and even with C.J. Stroud possibly recuperating, Davis Mills keeps things steady. Mills is a solid quarterback. The Titans' offense simply can't be relied upon to score against this front.

Pick: Texans 27, Titans 10

Bears (6-3) at Vikings (4-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Vikings by 3. O/U: 47 1/2.

After six wins in seven games, the Bears have built a belief. They're playing with confidence, running the ball and getting better defensively. Minnesota is improving and recently won at Detroit, but still can't find rhythm in the run game. Chicago keeps cruising.

Pick: Bears 24, Vikings 21

Packers (5-3-1) at Giants (2-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Packers by 7. O/U: 43 1/2.

The Packers are unlikely to drop three in a row, and their defense is built to take advantage of a turnover-prone quarterback like Jameis Winston. The Giants' defense keeps it close, but Green Bay controls the line of scrimmage.

Pick: Packers 24, Giants 13

Bengals (3-6) at Steelers (5-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Steelers by 5 1/2. O/U: 49 1/2.

The Bengals can score, but they can't stop anyone. Expect Aaron Rodgers to rebound after looking all of his 41 years for the first time this season. Pittsburgh's defense won't get enough pressure, and Cincinnati's defense springs more leaks. But a Bengals season sweep? I don't think so.

Pick: Steelers 31, Bengals 27

Seahawks (7-2) at Rams (7-2)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Rams by 3. O/U: 48 1/2.

This is a great NFC West showdown. Both teams are strong up front, but Los Angeles has a touch more balance and creativity. Seattle can run it, as can L.A., but the Rams make more explosive plays through the air.

Pick: Rams 28, Seahawks 24

49ers (6-4) at Cardinals (3-6)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: 49ers by 2 1/2. O/U: 48 1/2.

The 49ers were tested last week in a loss to the Rams, who were relentless, but San Francisco remains the more complete team than the Cardinals. Arizona could wind up making this interesting, but San Francisco's physicality wins out.

Pick: 49ers 28, Cardinals 23

Ravens (4-5) at Browns (2-7)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Ravens by 8 1/2. O/U: 39 1/2.

The Browns are reeling, coming off an embarrassing loss to the hapless Jets, while the Ravens are starting to regroup and surge. Baltimore's defense is forcing mistakes, and Lamar Jackson is in rhythm.

Pick: Ravens 27, Browns 10

Chiefs (5-4) at Broncos (8-2)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Chiefs by 3 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

The Chiefs' defense keeps improving, and that offense has been on a tear all season. Matching Patrick Mahomes touchdown for touchdown will be a challenge for Denver. Expect another tight one decided by a late field goal.

Pick: Chiefs 24, Broncos 21

Lions (6-3) at Eagles (7-2)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Eagles by 2 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

This might be the best matchup of the week. The Lions' offense is balanced and creative under a new play-caller, while the Eagles' offense remains uneven. Monday night was draining. Detroit finds the edge with Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams.

Pick: Lions 27, Eagles 21

Cowboys (3-5-1) at Raiders (2-7)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Cowboys by 3 1/2. O/U: 50 1/2.

Tight end Brock Bowers gives the Raiders a jolt, and their offense is much better with him, but it won't be nearly enough. Coming out of the bye, Dallas is healthier, faster and deeper. The Raiders could keep this close for a while, though.

Pick: Cowboys 30, Raiders 21